Match context

The upcoming match between Paide and Laagri is scheduled for 13.09.2026 11:30 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is Paide linnastaadion, Paide. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Paide are in position 4 with 45 points after 26 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 42 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWD. Laagri are in position 7 with 31 points after 27 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 1 draws and 16 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 46 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWWL.

Recent results

Paide recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLWDLLWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Laagri recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWLLWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Paide recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Laagri recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Paide or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.74%, 22.37% and 19.89%. The model momentum difference is 37.85 points in favour of Paide. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.67%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Paide 0 / Laagri 0 supports Laagri by an average 1.07 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Paide at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.13 yellow cards, 0.38 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 26 completed matches (69.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Laagri away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.13 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 27 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Paide and Laagri ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 total goals, while this match produced 3. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Paide at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.13 yellow cards, 0.38 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Paide received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Laagri away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.13 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. In this game, Laagri received 7 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 7 in total. That was 4.87 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Laagri at 0. The stored market movement was 1.07 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.