Match context

The upcoming match between Kalju Nomme and Laagri is scheduled for 10.10.2026 11:30 in Meistriliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kalju Nomme are in position 4 with 50 points after 29 matches. The season record is 15 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 52 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLLL. Laagri are in position 6 with 35 points after 29 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 2 draws and 16 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 47 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLLW.

Recent results

Kalju Nomme recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLLLWWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Laagri recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLLWWLWL. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kalju Nomme recorded 8 wins, there were 1 draws, and Laagri recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kalju Nomme to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.67%, 21.38% and 17.96%. The model momentum difference is 42.71 points in favour of Kalju Nomme. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.21%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kalju Nomme 0 / Laagri 0 supports Kalju Nomme by an average 1.83 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kalju Nomme at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.30 red cards and 3.30 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 60.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 29 completed matches (65.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Laagri away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 22.2%, 22.2% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 29 completed matches (69.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kalju Nomme and Laagri ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kalju Nomme at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards and 3.3 total cards per match. In this game, Kalju Nomme received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Laagri away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Laagri received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kalju Nomme at 0. The stored market movement was 1.83 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.