Match context

The upcoming match between Vaprus and Kalju Nomme is scheduled for 13.10.2026 15:00 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Vaprus are in position 7 with 35 points after 30 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 41 scored and 59 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLW. Kalju Nomme are in position 4 with 50 points after 30 matches. The season record is 15 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 52 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWLL.

Recent results

Vaprus recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLWWLDLL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kalju Nomme recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLLLLLWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vaprus recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Kalju Nomme recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Kalju Nomme (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.88%, 21.12% and 59.00%. The model momentum difference is 39.12 points in favour of Kalju Nomme. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with William Hill. The stored estimated EV is -5.46%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 80/100, 79.91% group success rate across 3634 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Vaprus at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.18 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.18 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 63.6%, 36.4%, 18.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 30 completed matches (70.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kalju Nomme away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.11 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 30 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Vaprus and Kalju Nomme ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vaprus at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.18 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.18 total cards per match. In this game, Vaprus received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.18 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 36.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kalju Nomme away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.11 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. In this game, Kalju Nomme received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.89 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.