Match context

The upcoming match between Riga and Grobiņa is scheduled for 02.08.2026 15:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Riga are in position 2 with 58 points after 23 matches. The season record is 18 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 68 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW. Grobiņa are in position 8 with 20 points after 24 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 37 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLDL.

Recent results

Riga recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLWWDW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Grobiņa recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLWLWLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Riga recorded 9 wins, there were 1 draws, and Grobiņa recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Riga to win with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 81.29%, 11.58% and 7.13%. The model momentum difference is 74.16 points in favour of Riga. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.33%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Riga 0 / Grobiņa 0 supports Riga by an average 3.02 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 79.85% group success rate across 546 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Riga and Grobiņa ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Riga at 0. The stored market movement was 3.02 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.