Match context

The upcoming match between Rīgas FS and Grobiņa is scheduled for 10.08.2026 16:30 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Rīgas FS are in position 1 with 62 points after 24 matches. The season record is 20 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 56 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWW. Grobiņa are in position 8 with 21 points after 25 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 9 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 41 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLWL.

Recent results

Rīgas FS recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWWWWDW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Grobiņa recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWWLWLWL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rīgas FS recorded 10 wins, there were 0 draws, and Grobiņa recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rīgas FS to win with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 82.33%, 11.53% and 6.15%. The model momentum difference is 76.18 points in favour of Rīgas FS. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.79%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Rīgas FS +0.25 / Grobiņa -0.25 supports Rīgas FS by an average 11.76 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 13, score 77/100, 77.42% group success rate across 2808 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Rīgas FS and Grobiņa ended 6-1. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.5 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rīgas FS at +0.25. The stored market movement was 11.76 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 6-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 13. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.