Match context

The upcoming match between Tukums and FS Jelgava is scheduled for 29.08.2026 14:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tukums are in position 9 with 20 points after 25 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 8 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 49 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL. FS Jelgava are in position 7 with 28 points after 25 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 7 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 43 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL.

Recent results

Tukums recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLLLLLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. FS Jelgava recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLLLWWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tukums recorded 2 wins, there were 5 draws, and FS Jelgava recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Tukums -1.25 / FS Jelgava +1.25 supports Tukums by an average 2.97 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tukums at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.08 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 8.3%. Season card data is available for 26 of 27 completed matches (96.3% coverage). The discipline profile for FS Jelgava away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 1.92 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.92 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 16.7%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 26 of 27 completed matches (96.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Tukums and FS Jelgava ended 1-4. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tukums at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.08 total cards per match. In this game, Tukums received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.92 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 8.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FS Jelgava away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 1.92 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.92 total cards per match. In this game, FS Jelgava received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.92 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tukums at -1.25. The stored market movement was 2.97 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-4, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.