Match context

The upcoming match between Ogre United and Rīgas FS is scheduled for 30.08.2026 14:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ogre United are in position 10 with 14 points after 24 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 16 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 61 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDLW. Rīgas FS are in position 1 with 66 points after 24 matches. The season record is 20 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 56 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWD.

Recent results

Ogre United recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDLWWLWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 3.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rīgas FS recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWLDWWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ogre United recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Rīgas FS recorded 3 wins. The average total was 5 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rīgas FS to win with 85% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 5.51%, 9.36% and 85.13%. The model momentum difference is 79.62 points in favour of Rīgas FS. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.36%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ogre United 0 / Rīgas FS 0 supports Rīgas FS by an average 3.80 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 85.40% group success rate across 459 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ogre United at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.64 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.73 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 72.7%, 45.5%, 18.2% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 23 of 26 completed matches (88.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Rīgas FS away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 41.7%, 8.3%, 8.3% and 8.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 26 completed matches (80.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ogre United and Rīgas FS ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 5 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ogre United at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.64 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.73 total cards per match. In this game, Ogre United received 4 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.27 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 45.5% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 9.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rīgas FS away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Rīgas FS received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 8.3% of matches, 5+ in 8.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rīgas FS at 0. The stored market movement was 3.8 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.