Match context

The upcoming match between Auda and Grobiņa is scheduled for 06.09.2026 15:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Auda are in position 3 with 53 points after 23 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Grobiņa are in position 8 with 24 points after 25 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 9 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 41 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLD.

Recent results

Auda recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWLWWWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Grobiņa recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLDLWWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Auda recorded 8 wins, there were 2 draws, and Grobiņa recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Auda to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.76%, 21.74% and 15.50%. The model momentum difference is 47.26 points in favour of Auda. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.88%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Auda 0 / Grobiņa 0 supports Grobiņa by an average 2.46 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Auda at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 3.15 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 3.31 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 92.3%, 53.8%, 38.5% and 15.4% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 15.4%. Season card data is available for 26 of 27 completed matches (96.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Grobiņa away from home is based on 14 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 78.6%, 50.0%, 21.4% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 27 of 28 completed matches (96.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Auda and Grobiņa ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Auda at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 3.15 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 3.31 total cards per match. In this game, Auda received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.31 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 53.8% of matches, 5+ in 15.4%, and a red card in 15.4%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Grobiņa away from home was based on 14 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Grobiņa received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Grobiņa at 0. The stored market movement was 2.46 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.