Match context

The upcoming match between Riga and BFC Daugavpils is scheduled for 07.09.2026 16:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Riga are in position 2 with 65 points after 24 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 72 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. BFC Daugavpils are in position 4 with 37 points after 25 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWWL.

Recent results

Riga recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDDWDWWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. BFC Daugavpils recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDWWWLWDW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Riga recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and BFC Daugavpils recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Riga to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.09%, 17.09% and 12.82%. The model momentum difference is 57.28 points in favour of Riga. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.28 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Riga +0.25 / BFC Daugavpils -0.25 supports BFC Daugavpils by an average 3.42 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 12 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 79.83% group success rate across 694 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Riga at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 40.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 27 completed matches (77.8% coverage). The discipline profile for BFC Daugavpils away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 90.0%, 20.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 23 of 28 completed matches (82.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Riga and BFC Daugavpils ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Riga at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.6 total cards per match. In this game, Riga received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.6 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for BFC Daugavpils away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, BFC Daugavpils received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported BFC Daugavpils at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.42 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.