Match context

The upcoming match between Rīgas FS and FK Liepaja is scheduled for 07.09.2026 16:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Rīgas FS are in position 1 with 69 points after 24 matches. The season record is 20 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 56 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWW. FK Liepaja are in position 5 with 37 points after 24 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWLW.

Recent results

Rīgas FS recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWLWLDWW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. FK Liepaja recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWLLWLWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rīgas FS recorded 8 wins, there were 1 draws, and FK Liepaja recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rīgas FS to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.09%, 18.92% and 14.98%. The model momentum difference is 51.11 points in favour of Rīgas FS. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.11%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Rīgas FS +0.25 / FK Liepaja -0.25 supports FK Liepaja by an average 2.29 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 11 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 84/100, 84.20% group success rate across 1152 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Rīgas FS at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 33.3%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 22 of 27 completed matches (81.5% coverage). The discipline profile for FK Liepaja away from home is based on 14 matches. The team averages 2.29 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 50.0%, 14.3% and 7.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 27 of 28 completed matches (96.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Rīgas FS and FK Liepaja ended 0-0. The game produced 0 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 0. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rīgas FS at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. In this game, Rīgas FS received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.22 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Liepaja away from home was based on 14 matches, with averages of 2.29 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, FK Liepaja received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.57 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 7.1%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FK Liepaja at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.29 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-0, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was No FT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.