Match context

The upcoming match between Riga and Auda is scheduled for 11.09.2026 15:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Riga are in position 2 with 65 points after 24 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 72 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Auda are in position 3 with 53 points after 23 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW.

Recent results

Riga recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWDDWDWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Auda recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWWWLWWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Riga recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Auda recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Riga to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.99%, 18.76% and 14.26%. The model momentum difference is 52.73 points in favour of Riga. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Riga 0 / Auda 0 supports Riga by an average 5.35 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Riga at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.36 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.45 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 45.5%, 45.5%, 36.4% and 18.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 22 of 28 completed matches (78.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Auda away from home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 3.38 yellow cards, 0.23 red cards and 3.62 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 92.3%, 61.5%, 46.2% and 30.8% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 15.4%. Season card data is available for 27 of 28 completed matches (96.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Riga and Auda ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4 total goals, while this match produced 4. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Riga at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.36 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.45 total cards per match. In this game, Riga received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.45 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 45.5% of matches, 5+ in 18.2%, and a red card in 9.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Auda away from home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 3.38 yellow cards, 0.23 red cards and 3.62 total cards per match. In this game, Auda received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.62 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 61.5% of matches, 5+ in 30.8%, and a red card in 15.4%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Riga at 0. The stored market movement was 5.35 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.