Match context

The upcoming match between BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS is scheduled for 13.09.2026 11:00 in Virsliga. The listed venue is Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
BFC Daugavpils are in position 5 with 38 points after 29 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 8 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDWW. Rīgas FS are in position 1 with 70 points after 28 matches. The season record is 22 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 68 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDWW.

Recent results

BFC Daugavpils recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLDWWWLWD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rīgas FS recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDWLWLDW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, BFC Daugavpils recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Rīgas FS recorded 10 wins. The average total was 4.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rīgas FS to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.31%, 19.06% and 69.63%. The model momentum difference is 58.31 points in favour of Rīgas FS. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair BFC Daugavpils +0.25 / Rīgas FS -0.25 supports Rīgas FS by an average 1.14 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 10 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for BFC Daugavpils at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 1.85 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.85 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 53.8%, 15.4%, 7.7% and 7.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 23 of 29 completed matches (79.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Rīgas FS away from home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 1.69 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.69 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 38.5%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 7.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 28 completed matches (78.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for BFC Daugavpils at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 1.85 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.85 total cards per match. In this game, BFC Daugavpils received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.15 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 15.4% of matches, 5+ in 7.7%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rīgas FS away from home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 1.69 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.69 total cards per match. In this game, Rīgas FS received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.69 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 7.7% of matches, 5+ in 7.7%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rīgas FS at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.14 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.