Match context

The upcoming match between Ogre United and FK Liepaja is scheduled for 11.09.2026 14:00 in Virsliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ogre United are in position 10 with 14 points after 24 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 16 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 61 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL. FK Liepaja are in position 5 with 37 points after 24 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWLW.

Recent results

Ogre United recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLDLWWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals. FK Liepaja recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWWLLWLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ogre United recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and FK Liepaja recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FK Liepaja to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.73%, 21.18% and 60.10%. The model momentum difference is 41.37 points in favour of FK Liepaja. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ogre United 0 / FK Liepaja 0 supports Ogre United by an average 1.86 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.64% group success rate across 1552 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ogre United at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.75 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.92 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 25 of 28 completed matches (89.3% coverage). The discipline profile for FK Liepaja away from home is based on 15 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.53 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 73.3%, 53.3%, 20.0% and 6.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 13.3%. Season card data is available for 28 of 29 completed matches (96.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ogre United and FK Liepaja ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ogre United at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.75 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.92 total cards per match. In this game, Ogre United received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.92 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Liepaja away from home was based on 15 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.53 total cards per match. In this game, FK Liepaja received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.47 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 53.3% of matches, 5+ in 6.7%, and a red card in 13.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ogre United at 0. The stored market movement was 1.86 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.