Match context

The upcoming match between Pakhtakor and Surkhon is scheduled for 21.08.2026 15:00 in Super League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Pakhtakor are in position 2 with 38 points after 16 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWW. Surkhon are in position 14 with 18 points after 16 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

Pakhtakor recorded 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDDWWDDDW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Surkhon recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLWDLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Pakhtakor recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Surkhon recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Pakhtakor to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.09%, 17.09% and 12.82%. The model momentum difference is 57.28 points in favour of Pakhtakor. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.28 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Pakhtakor at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 17 completed matches (35.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Surkhon away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 17 completed matches (47.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Pakhtakor and Surkhon ended 0-0. The game produced 0 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 0. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Pakhtakor at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Pakhtakor received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Surkhon away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Surkhon received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.