Match context

The upcoming match between Neftchi and Sogdiana is scheduled for 23.08.2026 14:00 in Super League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Neftchi are in position 1 with 42 points after 15 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDD. Sogdiana are in position 10 with 24 points after 16 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWL.

Recent results

Neftchi recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDDWWLDW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sogdiana recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLLWLWD. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Neftchi recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Sogdiana recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Neftchi to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.89%, 20.07% and 12.04%. The model momentum difference is 55.85 points in favour of Neftchi. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.70%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Neftchi 0 / Sogdiana 0 supports Neftchi by an average 1.55 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.87).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Neftchi at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 18 completed matches (50.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sogdiana away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 18 completed matches (44.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Neftchi and Sogdiana ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Neftchi at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, Neftchi received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sogdiana away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Sogdiana received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Neftchi at 0. The stored market movement was 1.55 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.87. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.