Match context

The upcoming match between Sogdiana and Mash'al is scheduled for 05.09.2026 13:00 in Super League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sogdiana are in position 10 with 24 points after 16 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW. Mash'al are in position 16 with 4 points after 16 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 14 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Sogdiana recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWWLLWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mash'al recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLDWLL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sogdiana recorded 3 wins, there were 4 draws, and Mash'al recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sogdiana to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.36%, 18.86% and 13.78%. The model momentum difference is 53.58 points in favour of Sogdiana. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sogdiana at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 19 completed matches (47.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Mash'al away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 19 completed matches (47.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sogdiana and Mash'al ended 5-2. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sogdiana at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Sogdiana received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.25 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mash'al away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Mash'al received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.