Match context

The upcoming match between Tampere United and TPV is scheduled for 15.08.2026 14:00 in Ykkönen. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tampere United are in position 1 with 40 points after 18 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 41 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDDW. TPV are in position 9 with 20 points after 18 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLW.

Recent results

Tampere United recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDDWLWWWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. TPV recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLWWWLDD. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tampere United recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and TPV recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tampere United to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.58%, 16.83% and 13.59%. The model momentum difference is 55.98 points in favour of Tampere United. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.64%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 86/100, 85.89% group success rate across 404 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tampere United at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 25.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 19 completed matches (78.9% coverage). The discipline profile for TPV away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.44 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 3.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 66.7%, 44.4% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 66.7%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Tampere United and TPV ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tampere United at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Tampere United received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for TPV away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.44 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 3.11 total cards per match. In this game, TPV received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 66.7%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.