Match context

The upcoming match between JJK and KPV-j is scheduled for 29.08.2026 11:00 in Ykkönen. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
JJK are in position 8 with 28 points after 18 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 41 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDLL. KPV-j are in position 12 with 15 points after 18 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 56 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLW.

Recent results

JJK recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDLLLDLWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. KPV-j recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLWLDLWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, JJK recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and KPV-j recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as JJK to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.72%, 17.08% and 11.21%. The model momentum difference is 60.51 points in favour of JJK. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.35%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 34, score 79/100, 79.38% group success rate across 291 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for JJK at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.60 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.70 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 90.0%, 60.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 21 completed matches (95.2% coverage). The discipline profile for KPV-j away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 10.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 21 completed matches (90.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between JJK and KPV-j ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for JJK at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.6 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.7 total cards per match. In this game, JJK received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.7 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for KPV-j away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, KPV-j received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 10%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 34. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.