Match context

The upcoming match between Forge and York United is scheduled for 05.09.2026 23:00 in Canadian Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Forge are in position 1 with 41 points after 14 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLLD. York United are in position 7 with 18 points after 13 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDLL.

Recent results

Forge recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLLDWWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. York United recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWDLLDLLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Forge recorded 7 wins, there were 3 draws, and York United recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Forge to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 72.00%, 18.00% and 10.00%. The model momentum difference is 62.00 points in favour of Forge. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.00%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home -1.75. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Forge at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 18 completed matches (88.9% coverage). The discipline profile for York United away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 3.25 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 62.5%, 50.0% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 14 of 17 completed matches (82.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Forge and York United ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.6 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Forge at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Forge received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for York United away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 3.25 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. In this game, York United received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.38 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Forge at -1.75. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.