Match context

The upcoming match between APIA Leichhardt Tigers and St George City FA is scheduled for 30.08.2026 05:00 in New South Wales NPL. The listed venue is Lambert Park, Sydney. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
APIA Leichhardt Tigers are in position 1 with 65 points after 26 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 59 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDWW. St George City FA are in position 11 with 37 points after 26 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 40 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW.

Recent results

APIA Leichhardt Tigers recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDDWWWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. St George City FA recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWLLDLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, APIA Leichhardt Tigers recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and St George City FA recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.29 goals per match. Both teams scored in 57.1% of those matches, while 57.1% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as APIA Leichhardt Tigers to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.24%, 20.77% and 14.99%. The model momentum difference is 49.25 points in favour of APIA Leichhardt Tigers. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair APIA Leichhardt Tigers 0 / St George City FA 0 supports APIA Leichhardt Tigers by an average 4.35 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between APIA Leichhardt Tigers and St George City FA ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.29 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 0. The stored market movement was 4.35 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.