Match context

The upcoming match between Leones del Norte and Independiente del Valle is scheduled for 22.08.2026 00:00 in Liga Pro. The listed venue is Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra, Ibarra. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Leones del Norte are in position 7 with 35 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWD. Independiente del Valle are in position 1 with 64 points after 23 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 56 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Leones del Norte recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLWDWDWW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Independiente del Valle recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWWWW. The averages are 2.70 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Independiente del Valle recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Independiente del Valle (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.71%, 25.28% and 56.01%. The model momentum difference is 37.30 points in favour of Independiente del Valle. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.89%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Leones del Norte -0.25 / Independiente del Valle +0.25 supports Leones del Norte by an average 1.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 42 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Leones del Norte at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.42 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.58 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 41.7%, 8.3% and 8.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 25 of 25 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Independiente del Valle away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.64 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.64 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 81.8%, 81.8%, 45.5%, 27.3% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 24 completed matches (91.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Leones del Norte and Independiente del Valle ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Leones del Norte at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.