Match context

The upcoming match between Aucas and Libertad is scheduled for 30.08.2026 18:00 in Liga Pro. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Aucas are in position 2 with 44 points after 23 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL. Libertad are in position 8 with 34 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW.

Recent results

Aucas recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDWWLLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Libertad recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWWLWDL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Aucas recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and Libertad recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.38 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 37.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Aucas or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.22%, 24.81% and 15.96%. The model momentum difference is 43.26 points in favour of Aucas. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.20%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Aucas at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.58 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 58.3%, 50.0%, 41.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 8.3%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Libertad away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.42 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.42 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 91.7%, 33.3%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 25 of 26 completed matches (96.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Aucas and Libertad ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 3 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.38 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.7 total corners. The match recorded 3 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aucas at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.58 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, Aucas received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 8.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Libertad away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.42 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.42 total cards per match. In this game, Libertad received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.42 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.