Match context

The upcoming match between Emelec and Leones del Norte is scheduled for 30.08.2026 23:00 in Liga Pro. The listed venue is Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Emelec are in position 13 with 29 points after 23 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDLL. Leones del Norte are in position 7 with 35 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLDW.

Recent results

Emelec recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLLDLWDD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Leones del Norte recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDLWDWDW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Emelec recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Leones del Norte recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Emelec or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.51%, 28.97% and 19.52%. The model momentum difference is 31.99 points in favour of Emelec. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Emelec -0.25 / Leones del Norte +0.25 supports Emelec by an average 2.70 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 12 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Emelec at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.42 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 91.7%, 66.7%, 41.7%, 33.3% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 23 of 24 completed matches (95.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Leones del Norte away from home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 2.38 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.46 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 92.3%, 76.9%, 30.8%, 30.8% and 7.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 7.7%. Season card data is available for 26 of 26 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Emelec and Leones del Norte ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 5 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.8 total corners. The match recorded 5 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Emelec at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.42 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Emelec received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 41.7% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Leones del Norte away from home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 2.38 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.46 total cards per match. In this game, Leones del Norte received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.46 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 30.8% of matches, 5+ in 7.7%, and a red card in 7.7%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Emelec at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.7 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.