Match context

The upcoming match between Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica is scheduled for 29.08.2026 18:00 in Liga Pro. The listed venue is Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Independiente del Valle are in position 1 with 67 points after 23 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 56 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW. Universidad Catolica are in position 3 with 43 points after 23 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLWD.

Recent results

Independiente del Valle recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWWWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Universidad Catolica recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWDWWWLL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Independiente del Valle recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Universidad Catolica recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 98%; over 9.5 corners — 87%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Independiente del Valle or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.40%, 24.36% and 19.24%. The model momentum difference is 37.16 points in favour of Independiente del Valle. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.51%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Independiente del Valle -1 / Universidad Catolica +1 supports Independiente del Valle by an average 1.40 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 9 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.95% bucket win rate across 513 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Independiente del Valle at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 1.55 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 1.73 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.9%, 72.7%, 9.1%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 18.2%. Season card data is available for 23 of 25 completed matches (92.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Universidad Catolica away from home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 1.85 yellow cards, 0.31 red cards and 2.15 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 76.9%, 53.8%, 38.5%, 23.1% and 15.4% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 30.8%. Season card data is available for 25 of 26 completed matches (96.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.3 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 98%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 87%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Independiente del Valle at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 1.55 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 1.73 total cards per match. In this game, Independiente del Valle received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.73 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 9.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 18.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Universidad Catolica away from home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 1.85 yellow cards, 0.31 red cards and 2.15 total cards per match. In this game, Universidad Catolica received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.15 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 38.5% of matches, 5+ in 15.4%, and a red card in 30.8%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Independiente del Valle at -1. The stored market movement was 1.4 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.