Match context

The upcoming match between Independiente del Valle and Macara is scheduled for 05.09.2026 23:00 in Liga Pro. The listed venue is Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Independiente del Valle are in position 1 with 67 points after 23 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 56 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW. Macara are in position 4 with 42 points after 23 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW.

Recent results

Independiente del Valle recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWWWWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Macara recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDDLWWDW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Independiente del Valle recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Macara recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 99%; over 9.5 corners — 88%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Independiente del Valle to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.55%, 21.21% and 12.24%. The model momentum difference is 54.30 points in favour of Independiente del Valle. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.17%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Independiente del Valle 0 / Macara 0 supports Independiente del Valle by an average 3.50 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 17 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.87). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Independiente del Valle at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 91.7%, 66.7%, 8.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 25 of 27 completed matches (92.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Macara away from home is based on 14 matches. The team averages 1.64 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.64 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 85.7%, 64.3%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 26 of 26 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Independiente del Valle and Macara ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.4 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 88%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Independiente del Valle at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Independiente del Valle received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 8.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Macara away from home was based on 14 matches, with averages of 1.64 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.64 total cards per match. In this game, Macara received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.64 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Independiente del Valle at 0. The stored market movement was 3.5 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.87. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 16 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.