Match context

The upcoming match between Nõmme United II and Tartu Welco is scheduled for 01.08.2026 16:00 in Esiliiga A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Nõmme United II are in position 9 with 20 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 48 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLDL. Tartu Welco are in position 1 with 45 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 62 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW.

Recent results

Nõmme United II recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLDLLLWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tartu Welco recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWWWWWWD. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United II recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Tartu Welco recorded 2 wins. The average total was 5.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tartu Welco to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 15.68%, 18.03% and 66.29%. The model momentum difference is 50.61 points in favour of Tartu Welco. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.85%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Nõmme United II 0 / Tartu Welco 0 supports Tartu Welco by an average 9.23 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 50, score 92/100, 91.67% group success rate across 24 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Nõmme United II and Tartu Welco ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tartu Welco at 0. The stored market movement was 9.23 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 50. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.