Match context

The upcoming match between Tallinna Kalev and FC Tallinn is scheduled for 08.08.2026 12:00 in Esiliiga A. The listed venue is Kalevi Keskstaadion, Tallinn. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tallinna Kalev are in position 7 with 25 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 42 scored and 41 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWW. FC Tallinn are in position 9 with 23 points after 21 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 49 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWL.

Recent results

Tallinna Kalev recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDWWLLLL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Tallinn recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWLLLWD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tallinna Kalev recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and FC Tallinn recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tallinna Kalev to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.96%, 18.99% and 20.05%. The model momentum difference is 40.91 points in favour of Tallinna Kalev. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.78%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Tallinna Kalev 0 / FC Tallinn 0 supports Tallinna Kalev by an average 6.42 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 85.35% group success rate across 389 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.36).

What happened in the match

The match between Tallinna Kalev and FC Tallinn ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.33 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tallinna Kalev at 0. The stored market movement was 6.42 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.36. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.