Match context

The upcoming match between Tartu Welco and FCI Levadia II is scheduled for 20.08.2026 12:00 in Esiliiga A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tartu Welco are in position 1 with 48 points after 21 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 63 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLW. FCI Levadia II are in position 7 with 31 points after 21 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 1 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 41 scored and 37 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW.

Recent results

Tartu Welco recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLWDWWW. The averages are 3.40 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. FCI Levadia II recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWWWWLWW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco recorded 3 wins, there were 5 draws, and FCI Levadia II recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tartu Welco to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.10%, 17.95% and 17.95%. The model momentum difference is 46.15 points in favour of Tartu Welco. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.26%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.35). At least one goal in the match (quota 36, score 92/100, 92.31% group success rate across 39 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Tartu Welco and FCI Levadia II ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.35. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 36. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.