Match context

The upcoming match between Nõmme Kalju II and Tartu Welco is scheduled for 23.08.2026 12:00 in Esiliiga A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Nõmme Kalju II are in position 10 with 19 points after 21 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 55 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD. Tartu Welco are in position 1 with 48 points after 21 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 63 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLW.

Recent results

Nõmme Kalju II recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLDDLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 3 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tartu Welco recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLLWDWW. The averages are 3.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju II recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Tartu Welco recorded 8 wins. The average total was 4.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tartu Welco to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 10.02%, 12.89% and 77.09%. The model momentum difference is 67.07 points in favour of Tartu Welco. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.80%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Nõmme Kalju II 0 / Tartu Welco 0 supports Tartu Welco by an average 4.13 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 1.89). At least one goal in the match (quota 60, score 81/100, 80.65% group success rate across 31 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Nõmme Kalju II and Tartu Welco ended 2-4. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tartu Welco at 0. The stored market movement was 4.13 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-4, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 1.89. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 60. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.