Match context

The upcoming match between Elva and Nõmme Kalju II is scheduled for 06.09.2026 14:00 in Esiliiga A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Elva are in position 4 with 41 points after 21 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 39 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLW. Nõmme Kalju II are in position 10 with 22 points after 21 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 55 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL.

Recent results

Elva recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWWDWWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nõmme Kalju II recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLLLLDD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Elva recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Nõmme Kalju II recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Elva to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.95%, 16.28% and 13.77%. The model momentum difference is 56.17 points in favour of Elva. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.28 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Elva 0 / Nõmme Kalju II 0 supports Elva by an average 13.21 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 36, score 89/100, 88.64% group success rate across 44 observations). Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.47).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Nõmme Kalju II away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 26 completed matches (7.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Elva and Nõmme Kalju II ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Elva at 0. The stored market movement was 13.21 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 36. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Odd HT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.47. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.