Match context

The upcoming match between Tartu Welco and Nõmme Kalju II is scheduled for 14.09.2026 16:00 in Esiliiga A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tartu Welco are in position 1 with 56 points after 28 matches. The season record is 17 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 76 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLWW. Nõmme Kalju II are in position 10 with 22 points after 28 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 18 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 73 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

Tartu Welco recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWWWWLLL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nõmme Kalju II recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLLLLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco recorded 9 wins, there were 0 draws, and Nõmme Kalju II recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tartu Welco to win with 79% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 78.65%, 12.81% and 8.54%. The model momentum difference is 70.11 points in favour of Tartu Welco. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Betfair. The stored estimated EV is -10.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 60, score 83/100, 82.86% group success rate across 35 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tartu Welco at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 28 completed matches (3.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Nõmme Kalju II away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 28 completed matches (7.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Tartu Welco and Nõmme Kalju II ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 60. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.