Match context

The upcoming match between Criciuma and Goias is scheduled for 15.08.2026 19:00 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Criciuma are in position 1 with 40 points after 20 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Goias are in position 9 with 29 points after 20 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWDW.

Recent results

Criciuma recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWWWWDW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals. Goias recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWDWWLDL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Criciuma recorded 2 wins, there were 4 draws, and Goias recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 95%; over 9.5 corners — 85%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Criciuma or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 52.02%, 29.26% and 18.73%. The model momentum difference is 33.29 points in favour of Criciuma. The input data quality score is 97/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Criciuma -0.5 / Goias +0.5 supports Criciuma by an average 1.36 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, Unibet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Criciuma at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.38 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Goias away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 2.27 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.9%, 63.6%, 45.5%, 18.2% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 18.2%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Criciuma and Goias ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.1 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 95%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 85%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Criciuma at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.38 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. In this game, Criciuma received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.62 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Goias away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 2.27 total cards per match. In this game, Goias received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.27 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 45.5% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 18.2%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Criciuma at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.36 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.