Match context

The upcoming match between Sport Recife and Londrina is scheduled for 14.08.2026 23:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sport Recife are in position 10 with 29 points after 20 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDDL. Londrina are in position 17 with 20 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDDW.

Recent results

Sport Recife recorded 1 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDDLLDDD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Londrina recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDDWDWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sport Recife recorded 5 wins, there were 0 draws, and Londrina recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 83.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sport Recife or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.58%, 26.25% and 17.18%. The model momentum difference is 39.40 points in favour of Sport Recife. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.58%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sport Recife at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.80 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.90 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 50.0%, 30.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 18 completed matches (94.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Londrina away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 3.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sport Recife and Londrina ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.6 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sport Recife at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.8 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.9 total cards per match. In this game, Sport Recife received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.9 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Londrina away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 3.11 total cards per match. In this game, Londrina received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.