Match context

The upcoming match between Novorizontino and America Mineiro is scheduled for 20.08.2026 23:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Novorizontino are in position 7 with 34 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLL. America Mineiro are in position 19 with 11 points after 20 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLD.

Recent results

Novorizontino recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLLLWWWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. America Mineiro recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLDDLLLW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and America Mineiro recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Novorizontino to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.81%, 23.64% and 14.55%. The model momentum difference is 47.26 points in favour of Novorizontino. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.43%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Novorizontino at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.38 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for America Mineiro away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.70 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Novorizontino and America Mineiro ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.