Match context

The upcoming match between Vila Nova and Ponte Preta is scheduled for 19.08.2026 23:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Vila Nova are in position 3 with 37 points after 20 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLWL. Ponte Preta are in position 20 with 10 points after 20 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLL.

Recent results

Vila Nova recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLLWLWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ponte Preta recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLLLLLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova recorded 2 wins, there were 6 draws, and Ponte Preta recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Vila Nova to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.20%, 21.73% and 11.07%. The model momentum difference is 56.13 points in favour of Vila Nova. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.92%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Vila Nova at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.56 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 55.6%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ponte Preta away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.89 yellow cards, 0.56 red cards and 3.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 44.4%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Vila Nova and Ponte Preta ended 6-0. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.5 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.1 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vila Nova at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.56 total cards per match. In this game, Vila Nova received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.56 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ponte Preta away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.89 yellow cards, 0.56 red cards and 3.44 total cards per match. In this game, Ponte Preta received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.44 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 44.4%.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.