Match context

The upcoming match between Novorizontino and Sport Recife is scheduled for 28.08.2026 23:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Novorizontino are in position 4 with 40 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDLW. Sport Recife are in position 6 with 38 points after 20 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWD.

Recent results

Novorizontino recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLWLLLWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sport Recife recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWDDDDLL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Sport Recife recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Novorizontino or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.87%, 26.07% and 17.06%. The model momentum difference is 39.81 points in favour of Novorizontino. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.45%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Novorizontino 0 / Sport Recife 0 supports Novorizontino by an average 2.21 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 20 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Novorizontino at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.44 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 55.6%, 22.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 22 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sport Recife away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.89 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 77.8%, 66.7%, 44.4% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Novorizontino and Sport Recife ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.5 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.4 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Novorizontino at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.44 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. In this game, Novorizontino received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.44 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sport Recife away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.89 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Sport Recife received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Novorizontino at 0. The stored market movement was 2.21 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.