Match context

The upcoming match between Novorizontino and Avai is scheduled for 05.09.2026 19:00 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Novorizontino are in position 4 with 43 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDL. Avai are in position 16 with 29 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWL.

Recent results

Novorizontino recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLWLLLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Avai recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWLLWDWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Avai recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.38 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Novorizontino to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.60%, 22.96% and 13.45%. The model momentum difference is 50.15 points in favour of Novorizontino. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.88%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Novorizontino at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.30 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.30 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 50.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 23 of 23 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Avai away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 3.18 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 3.27 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 90.9%, 54.5%, 27.3% and 18.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 23 of 23 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Novorizontino and Avai ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.38 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.2 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Novorizontino at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.3 total cards per match. In this game, Novorizontino received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Avai away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 3.18 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 3.27 total cards per match. In this game, Avai received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.27 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 54.5% of matches, 5+ in 18.2%, and a red card in 9.1%.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.