Match context

The upcoming match between Ponte Preta and São Bernardo is scheduled for 06.09.2026 21:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ponte Preta are in position 20 with 10 points after 20 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL. São Bernardo are in position 14 with 32 points after 20 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDLW.

Recent results

Ponte Preta recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDLDLLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. São Bernardo recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLWLLDDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and São Bernardo recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as São Bernardo to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 9.41%, 19.82% and 70.77%. The model momentum difference is 61.36 points in favour of São Bernardo. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.87%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ponte Preta 0 / São Bernardo 0 supports São Bernardo by an average 1.44 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.45, score 83/100, 75% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ponte Preta at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 3.08 yellow cards, 0.31 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 76.9%, 61.5%, 53.8% and 30.8% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 23.1%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for São Bernardo away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.45 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.45 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 72.7%, 63.6%, 45.5%, 27.3% and 27.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ponte Preta and São Bernardo ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.5 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ponte Preta at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 3.08 yellow cards, 0.31 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. In this game, Ponte Preta received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.38 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 61.5% of matches, 5+ in 30.8%, and a red card in 23.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for São Bernardo away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.45 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.45 total cards per match. In this game, São Bernardo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.45 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 45.5% of matches, 5+ in 27.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported São Bernardo at 0. The stored market movement was 1.44 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 12 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.