Match context

The upcoming match between Atletico Goianiense and Ceara is scheduled for 10.09.2026 00:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Atletico Goianiense are in position 8 with 40 points after 20 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWDL. Ceara are in position 16 with 31 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLL.

Recent results

Atletico Goianiense recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWDLDWWDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ceara recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLWWLDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Atletico Goianiense recorded 4 wins, there were 4 draws, and Ceara recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Atletico Goianiense or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.96%, 28.34% and 19.69%. The model momentum difference is 32.27 points in favour of Atletico Goianiense. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.24%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Atletico Goianiense -0.25 / Ceara +0.25 supports Atletico Goianiense by an average 3.11 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 29 stored observations. The current confirmed reversal event points in the same direction. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.02).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Atletico Goianiense at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 70.0%, 50.0%, 30.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 22 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ceara away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.08 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 83.3%, 58.3%, 50.0%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 25 of 25 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Atletico Goianiense and Ceara ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.9 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atletico Goianiense at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Atletico Goianiense received 1 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.4 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ceara away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.08 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Ceara received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.75 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 16.7%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Atletico Goianiense at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.11 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.02. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.