Match context

The upcoming match between Sport Recife and Ponte Preta is scheduled for 11.09.2026 00:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sport Recife are in position 9 with 38 points after 20 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLW. Ponte Preta are in position 20 with 10 points after 20 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD.

Recent results

Sport Recife recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLWWDDDD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ponte Preta recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLDLDLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sport Recife recorded 5 wins, there were 4 draws, and Ponte Preta recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sport Recife to win with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 80.89%, 11.83% and 7.28%. The model momentum difference is 73.61 points in favour of Sport Recife. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.36%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sport Recife 0 / Ponte Preta 0 supports Ponte Preta by an average 1.68 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sport Recife at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.42 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 91.7%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 25.0% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 8.3%. Season card data is available for 23 of 23 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ponte Preta away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.73 yellow cards, 0.45 red cards and 3.18 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 81.8%, 63.6%, 27.3% and 18.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 36.4%. Season card data is available for 25 of 25 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sport Recife and Ponte Preta ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sport Recife at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.42 total cards per match. In this game, Sport Recife received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.42 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 8.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ponte Preta away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.73 yellow cards, 0.45 red cards and 3.18 total cards per match. In this game, Ponte Preta received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.18 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 63.6% of matches, 5+ in 18.2%, and a red card in 36.4%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ponte Preta at 0. The stored market movement was 1.68 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.