Match context

The upcoming match between Novorizontino and Cuiaba is scheduled for 13.09.2026 21:30 in Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Novorizontino are in position 2 with 49 points after 27 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 47 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW. Cuiaba are in position 10 with 39 points after 27 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 12 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWDW.

Recent results

Novorizontino recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDLWLL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cuiaba recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDWWDDLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Cuiaba recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Novorizontino or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.69%, 27.85% and 16.46%. The model momentum difference is 39.23 points in favour of Novorizontino. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.77%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Novorizontino at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 92.3%, 53.8%, 38.5%, 15.4% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 27 of 27 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Cuiaba away from home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 1.69 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 1.77 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 92.3%, 53.8%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 7.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 7.7%. Season card data is available for 27 of 27 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Novorizontino and Cuiaba ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 16 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.33 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.5 total corners. The match recorded 16 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Novorizontino at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Novorizontino received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 38.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cuiaba away from home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 1.69 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 1.77 total cards per match. In this game, Cuiaba received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.23 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 7.7% of matches, 5+ in 7.7%, and a red card in 7.7%.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.