Match context

The upcoming match between Legion and Tartu Kalev is scheduled for 10.09.2026 14:45 in Esiliiga B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Legion are in position 10 with 12 points after 20 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 1 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 77 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL. Tartu Kalev are in position 6 with 41 points after 21 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 1 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 57 scored and 43 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW.

Recent results

Legion recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDLLLWLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tartu Kalev recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWWLWWWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Legion recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Tartu Kalev recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tartu Kalev to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.96%, 16.30% and 71.74%. The model momentum difference is 59.78 points in favour of Tartu Kalev. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.33%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Legion 0 / Tartu Kalev 0 supports Tartu Kalev by an average 6.70 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.36). Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tartu Kalev away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 27 completed matches (11.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Legion and Tartu Kalev ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tartu Kalev at 0. The stored market movement was 6.7 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.36. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Odd HT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.