Match context

The upcoming match between Narva U21 and Luunja is scheduled for 15.09.2026 14:30 in Esiliiga B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Narva U21 are in position 1 with 54 points after 27 matches. The season record is 17 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 66 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDL. Luunja are in position 5 with 47 points after 28 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 74 scored and 61 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL.

Recent results

Narva U21 recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLWWWWL. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Luunja recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLDDWWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Narva U21 recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Luunja recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 71.4% of those matches, while 57.1% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Narva U21 to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.64%, 15.50% and 14.86%. The model momentum difference is 54.78 points in favour of Narva U21. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.28 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.86%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Narva U21 and Luunja ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.