Match context

The upcoming match between Brisbane Roar II and Moreton City Excelsior is scheduled for 02.08.2026 04:30 in Queensland NPL. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Brisbane Roar II are in position 12 with 13 points after 19 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 1 draws and 14 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 46 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDLW. Moreton City Excelsior are in position 3 with 36 points after 19 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 49 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWD.

Recent results

Brisbane Roar II recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLWLLLLL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Moreton City Excelsior recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWDWDLWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane Roar II recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Moreton City Excelsior recorded 4 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Moreton City Excelsior to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.84%, 19.84% and 60.32%. The model momentum difference is 40.48 points in favour of Moreton City Excelsior. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.72%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Brisbane Roar II 0 / Moreton City Excelsior 0 supports Moreton City Excelsior by an average 1.36 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Brisbane Roar II and Moreton City Excelsior ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 4 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Moreton City Excelsior at 0. The stored market movement was 1.36 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.