Match context

The upcoming match between FC Vitebsk and Naftan is scheduled for 28.08.2026 15:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FC Vitebsk are in position 6 with 29 points after 16 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWW. Naftan are in position 16 with 10 points after 16 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDL.

Recent results

FC Vitebsk recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWWWWDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Naftan recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDDLLWLL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FC Vitebsk recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Naftan recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Vitebsk to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.74%, 20.10% and 10.16%. The model momentum difference is 59.59 points in favour of FC Vitebsk. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.34 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -6.54%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FC Vitebsk 0 / Naftan 0 supports Naftan by an average 1.22 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.24, score 79/100, 79.44% bucket win rate across 107 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FC Vitebsk at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.71 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 71.4%, 71.4%, 28.6%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Naftan away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.13 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 62.5%, 25.0%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 18 completed matches (94.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Vitebsk and Naftan ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Vitebsk at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.71 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.71 total cards per match. In this game, FC Vitebsk received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.29 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Naftan away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.13 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.13 total cards per match. In this game, Naftan received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Naftan at 0. The stored market movement was 1.22 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.24. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.