Match context

The upcoming match between FC Dnepr Mogilev and ML Vitebsk is scheduled for 13.09.2026 12:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FC Dnepr Mogilev are in position 15 with 15 points after 21 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDDL. ML Vitebsk are in position 2 with 40 points after 19 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 7 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWDW.

Recent results

FC Dnepr Mogilev recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDDLDWWLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. ML Vitebsk recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWDWWLWWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, FC Dnepr Mogilev recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and ML Vitebsk recorded 4 wins. The average total was 4.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 83.3% of those matches, while 83.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.16; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 96%; over 9.5 corners — 86%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as ML Vitebsk to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.36%, 19.73% and 68.91%. The model momentum difference is 57.55 points in favour of ML Vitebsk. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -6.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FC Dnepr Mogilev 0 / ML Vitebsk 0 supports ML Vitebsk by an average 3.92 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.40, score 91/100, 85% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FC Dnepr Mogilev at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 44.4%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 20 of 21 completed matches (95.2% coverage). The discipline profile for ML Vitebsk away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 83.3%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 15 of 19 completed matches (78.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Dnepr Mogilev and ML Vitebsk ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.67 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.16 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 96%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 86%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Dnepr Mogilev at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. In this game, FC Dnepr Mogilev received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.78 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for ML Vitebsk away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, ML Vitebsk received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported ML Vitebsk at 0. The stored market movement was 3.92 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.