Match context

The upcoming match between Caxias and Figueirense is scheduled for 16.08.2026 19:00 in Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Caxias are in position 10 with 21 points after 15 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWDD. Figueirense are in position 13 with 20 points after 15 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLDD.

Recent results

Caxias recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWDDLWDW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Figueirense recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDLDDWWDL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caxias recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Figueirense recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 14; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Caxias or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.48%, 28.73% and 19.79%. The model momentum difference is 31.69 points in favour of Caxias. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -2.15%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Caxias -0.25 / Figueirense +0.25 supports Caxias by an average 3.07 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 18 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Caxias at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7%, 50.0% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 16 completed matches (81.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Figueirense away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.57 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 14 completed matches (92.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Caxias and Figueirense ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Caxias at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. In this game, Caxias received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Figueirense away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.57 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. In this game, Figueirense received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.43 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Caxias at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.07 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.