Match context

The upcoming match between Maringá and Barra is scheduled for 23.08.2026 19:00 in Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Maringá are in position 11 with 24 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDWW. Barra are in position 17 with 18 points after 15 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLW.

Recent results

Maringá recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDWWDDDLD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Barra recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWLDLLD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Maringá or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.63%, 25.13% and 17.23%. The model momentum difference is 40.40 points in favour of Maringá. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.13%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Maringá 0 / Barra 0 supports Maringá by an average 2.69 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Maringá at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 13 of 14 completed matches (92.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Barra away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 42.9% and 28.6% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 12 of 14 completed matches (85.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Maringá and Barra ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Maringá at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Maringá received 1 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Barra away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.29 total cards per match. In this game, Barra received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 0.71 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 28.6%, and a red card in 28.6%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Maringá at 0. The stored market movement was 2.69 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.