Match context

The upcoming match between Ferroviária and Confiança is scheduled for 29.08.2026 20:00 in Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ferroviária are in position 8 with 27 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDDW. Confiança are in position 20 with 13 points after 15 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLDL.

Recent results

Ferroviária recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDWLLWWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Confiança recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLDLLDWLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Confiança recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.21; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ferroviária to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.34%, 22.63% and 11.03%. The model momentum difference is 55.32 points in favour of Ferroviária. The input data quality score is 84/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.76%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ferroviária +0.25 / Confiança -0.25 supports Ferroviária by an average 2.21 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.24, score 92/100, 91.67% bucket win rate across 24 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ferroviária at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 15 completed matches (93.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Confiança away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 66.7%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 18 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ferroviária and Confiança ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ferroviária at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Ferroviária received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Confiança away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Confiança received 3 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ferroviária at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.21 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.