Match context

The upcoming match between Figueirense and Maranhão is scheduled for 29.08.2026 20:00 in Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Figueirense are in position 13 with 25 points after 15 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDWD. Maranhão are in position 9 with 27 points after 15 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW.

Recent results

Figueirense recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWDLDDWW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Maranhão recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWLDLDD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Figueirense or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.48%, 28.73% and 19.79%. The model momentum difference is 31.69 points in favour of Figueirense. The input data quality score is 84/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.17%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Figueirense -0.25 / Maranhão +0.25 supports Figueirense by an average 3.99 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Figueirense at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Maranhão away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1% and 42.9% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 16 completed matches (87.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Figueirense and Maranhão ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Figueirense at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Figueirense received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Maranhão away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Maranhão received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 85.7% of matches, 5+ in 42.9%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Figueirense at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.99 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 4 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.